"Mark Carney and the other members of the Monetary Policy Committee will be wary of further damaging already weak consumer spending"
Since the Bank won its independence in 1997, it has raised interest rates 20 times and four of those hikes fell in the month of November.
It is the most popular month for MPC adjustments with a further three rate drops among Threadneedle St's 46 adjustments over the last 20 years.
However if the MPC votes to hold rates next month, Minerva says that Carney’s warnings of imminent hike are not likely to play out until 2018 as December has never seen a rise.
While Bank governor Mark Carney recently warned rates are set to rise in the "near term”, the odds of a rate rise could be longer as Bank Rate has never gone up with GDP growth below 2.5%.
Former governor Eddie George - known as ‘Steady Eddie’ - oversaw the first post-independence rate rise in 1997 with three more following in 1999, 2003 and 2006.
However, the economy was much stronger in all four years, with GDP growth averaging a healthy 3.1% compared with today’s meagre 1.5%.
Last week, the ONS revised down the annual GDP forecast to the end of June from 1.7% as economists suggested growth in the third quarter may be no higher than 0.3% as inflation hits confidence.
Ross Andrews, director of listed bond provider at Minerva Lending, commented: "When the Bank has raised rates in November, it has always done so against a strong economic backdrop.
“But with some economists predicting GDP could slide below 1% for 2017, Mark Carney and the other members of the Monetary Policy Committee will be wary of further damaging already weak consumer spending and sentiment, and increasing borrowing costs for inflation-hit households.
“While the governor may be concerned by high levels of household debt, history suggests that a rate rise is far more likely to come in early 2018. This is clearly not great news for savers.”
