CML economist Mohammad Jamei observes:
"Current activity in the housing market has eased with transactions back down to levels seen almost a year ago.
"The reform in stamp duty is likely to provide a modest short-term boost in activity over the next few months, but its impact will fade away in the medium term."
Earlier this week, CML predicted mortgage lending to grow in 2015 and 2016, but more slowly than this year.
The report expects gross lending to climb modestly from £207 billion in 2014, to £222 billion in 2015, spread across regulated and BTL lending, house purchase and remortgage.
They did however predict stronger growth to £240 billion in 2016, which would represent the strongest performance since 2008.
Paul Hunt, managing director of Phoebus Software, said:
“The gross lending figures released this morning by the CML show a continued downward trend since a high of £19.8 billion in July this year.
"However, the estimated figure being almost exactly the same as in November 2013 suggests a seasonal influence rather than a complete downturn in the market. It will be interesting to see how things change in the first quarter of 2015 as the new stamp duty rules take effect and we head towards the general election.
"I think it is likely to be a busy start to the year as people get in before uncertainty takes hold as the election gets nearer .”
Peter Rollings, CEO of Marsh & Parsons, comments:
“The contours of the UK housing market have shifted from the start of 2014, with property price rises softening into a more organic upward curve. New configurations of affordability checks and pre-emptive measures in the mortgage market temporarily diverted the route of lending, but overall progress is healthy.”
“Mortgage products have never been more attractive, and with plentiful choice of properties and now smaller up-front stamp duty costs, buyers are faced with a very favourable set of conditions. This has a knock-on effect for sellers, as durable demand enables them to trade up, and this fluidity of movement at every level of the market will ensure buoyant activity and optimism spills over into the start of next year.”
