"There are still affordability pressures but lenders are definitely pricing to take market share and that’s keeping activity up."
- TMA’s development director, Lisa Martin
Gross mortgage lending in 2024 looks set to be stronger than anticipated, with more than 80% of mortgage brokers predicting a rise in borrowing compared to official forecasts.
Gross lending fell by 28% to £226 billion last year as borrowers tightened their belts amid rising living costs, UK Finance figures show.
And the lender trade body has forecast a further fall this year, taking gross lending down to £215bn.
But brokers are more confident of a recovery. Mortgage club TMA polled advisers at a recent event, with one in five believing gross lending in 2024 will be over £251bn.
A further three in five expect gross lending this year to be between £220bn and £250bn.
The poll also found that brokers were underwhelmed by the Spring Budget, with 95% confirming that nothing announced would ease borrower affordability, with those set to remortgage this year still facing the same affordability challenges.
Stronger lending is likely to come from the purchase side of the market, they suggested.
TMA’s development director, Lisa Martin, said: “Inflation fears are receding faster than the Bank of England had been expecting and the latest indications from the governor Andrew Bailey suggest we may see a base rate cut later in the year.
“That shift in the first three months of this year has boosted borrower confidence and advisers are seeing more engagement.
“There are still affordability pressures but lenders are definitely pricing to take market share and that’s keeping activity up.
“There is evidence that the housing market is back on track and brokers are seeing a rise in the number of clients looking to purchase, while remortgage activity remains steady.”
