BoE defies expectations to hold bank rate at 0.5%

Despite economists suggesting an 80% probability of a bank rate cut, the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee has voted to keep the base rate at its current historic low of 0.5%.

Related topics:  Finance News
Amy Loddington
14th July 2016
bank of england boe
"The MPC voted 8 to 1 to maintain the rate, with Gertjan Vlieghe voting to reduce Bank Rate by 25 basis points."

However most members of the Committee expect monetary policy to be loosened in August, after official data on economic activity covering the period since the referendum are available. 

The MPC voted 8 to 1 to maintain the rate, with Gertjan Vlieghe voting to reduce Bank Rate by 25 basis points.

The Committee said it will consider over the coming period how the outlook for the economy has changed in light of the referendum result and will publish its new forecast in its forthcoming Inflation Report on 4 August.

The minutes show that the Committee discussed various easing options and combinations, stating that "financial markets have reacted sharply to the United Kingdom’s vote to leave the European Union".

Regarding the housing market, the MPC say that survey data point to a "significant weakening in expected activity".

Immediately after the Referendum result, the swaps market gave a 50% chance of an interest rate cut in July, a 65% chance of a cut by August, and an 80% chance of a cut by the end of the year.

Bank of England governor Mark Carney said last week that "the economic outlook has deteriorated and some monetary policy easing will likely be required over the summer".

He added that “uncertainty over the pace, breadth and scale of these changes could weigh on our economic prospects for some time".

He confirmed that over the coming weeks, the Bank will consider "a host of other measures and policies to promote monetary and financial stability".

Ex-MPC member Andrew Sentance, speaking in the Financial Times today, warned that a cut could have had an unintended negative effect, saying: "A cut in interest rates or restarting QE could lead businesses and consumers to conclude the situation is worse than it is — and trigger the loss of confidence the BoE is trying to avoid."

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