UK public debt continues upward ascent

Data released today by the Office for National Statistics showed that public sector net borrowing excluding financial interventions was £10.3 billion in October 2010

Related topics:  Finance News
Millie Dyson
18th November 2010
Latest News
This was compared with £10.1 billion a year earlier and exceeding market expectations. Over the financial year to date, borrowing has come in at £81.6 billion, compared with £87.5 billion over the previous financial year.

The return to economic growth so far this year has contributed to the 6.7% decline in borrowing over the financial year to date.

Tax receipts for the financial year to date have risen by 9.2% compared with the previous year, partly driven by the return of VAT to 17.5% but also by the return to economic growth. Over the financial year to date current expenditure is up by 6.4%. Within this, interest payments have risen sharply; totalling £25.4 billion compared with £15.4 billion over the same period last year.

This reflects the rising volume of government debt and the costs of servicing this. Indeed, the October data show public sector net debt excluding financial interventions totalled £846 billion, up £151 billion from a year earlier.

As a share of GDP, public debt has risen to 57.1% - up by 7.8 percentage points from last year. Even more strikingly, this compares with 35.7% three years ago - at the very early stages of the financial crisis.

In June, the Office for Budget Responsibility forecasted a 3.7% decline in public sector net borrowing in 2010/11 compared with the previous year. Overall, the data so far imply this could be bettered although public borrowing did come in higher than expected in October.

This mainly reflects stronger than expected economic growth in 2010. It is almost certain that the OBR will revise up its 2010 projection for economic growth when it announces its revised forecasts on 29th November.

However, the key question is whether growth in 2011 and beyond can come in as strong as the OBR previously forecast. We have our doubts on this as the UK feels the chill of fiscal austerity on two fronts over the coming years: at home and in its key European export markets.

The sovereign debt crisis in Ireland underlines the latter - and the importance of implementing a credible deficit reduction strategy.
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