CML predictions for 2012

Gross mortgage lending in November totalled an estimated £13.0 billion, with the monthly figure showing its fourth consecutive year-on-year rise, according to the Council of Mortga

Related topics:  Mortgages
Millie Dyson
15th December 2011
Mortgages
This is 5% higher than in October, and 13% higher than in November 2010.

Publishing its housing and mortgage market forecast update, the CML confirmed that it now expects gross lending in 2011 to total £138 billion, with net lending of £9 billion.

For 2012, the CML's new central forecast is for £133 billion of gross lending and £5 billion of net lending, representing the weaker economic backdrop that now seems likely.

However, with so much economic uncertainty at present, this is subject to considerable variation in either direction.

The CML continues to expect the bulk of the negative effects in the housing market of wider economic uncertainty to manifest through a continuing low level of housing transactions.

While an estimated 852,000 transactions are likely to have taken place in 2011, the CML anticipates fewer transactions next year with a central forecast of 825,000.

In terms of mortgage repayment difficulties, the CML expects the increasing pressures on the household sector to unwind some of the improvements in mortgage arrears and repossessions experienced over the past two years.

The central forecast is for 45,000 repossessions next year, up from an estimated 37,000 this year but still fewer than the 2009 figure, and far lower than in the downturn of the 1990s.

In the full forecast, CML chief economist Bob Pannell, observes:

"The weak state of the wider economy and household finances creates a challenging and highly uncertain backdrop for the housing and mortgage markets.

"Despite the fact that activity levels have already been subdued for several years, we have pencilled in a broadly flat picture – for both mortgage lending and property transactions - at least until real incomes show signs of stabilising as inflationary pressures recede.

"As a by-product of sovereign debt worries, lenders face challenging conditions in wholesale funding markets, and these could have negative effects on the cost and availability of UK residential mortgages through some or all of next year.

"But, if European leaders navigate a comprehensive and sustainable way through Eurozone problems, current financial market stresses could heal - and the previous pattern of gradual improvement in cost and availability of funds re-emerge - relatively quickly.

"This in turn could have a major benefit on UK growth prospects, and boost household confidence and appetite to borrow."

Richard Sexton, director of e.surv chartered surveyors, said:

“While the gross mortgage lending figure for November is pretty stellar, the future does not look so bright. 

"The recent international economic turmoil has landed a series of heavy blows to the mortgage market – blows that will leave it still feeling groggy in the New Year.  Credit conditions are congealing, and confidence is low. 

"The best we can hope for is for lending to slide only marginally in 2012 - predictions of a flat market now look optimistic. 

"There certainly won’t be a great deal of scope for banks to increase their loan books.  The rate at which banks lend to each other - LIBOR - is creeping ominously upwards to 1.05%, and they will look to pass these costs onto consumers, which means mortgages rates will rise and high-loan-to-value lending will fall. 

"The small gains for first time buyers we’ve seen throughout the summer look certain to be reversed.  Banks are running for cover and scratching around for capital. 

"We’re seeing them focus more on lending to buy-to-let investors - which they see as lower risk - who are accounting for an increasingly large percentage of new loans.”

Mark Harris, chief executive of independent mortgage broker, SPF Private Clients, said:

"The mortgage market may be under siege but, as the November figures reveal, it is putting up one hell of a fight.

"There is a growing divide in the mortgage market between the higher, equity rich end, where there is still a decent level of activity, and the lower, equity poor end, where it remains incredibly difficult to secure a loan.

"Good quality borrowers with a decent amount of equity will have no problems at all getting a loan, but at higher LTVs lenders still have their guards up.

"The apathy in the mainstream mortgage market is hardly surprising given the dismal economic climate and the fact Bank Rate is effectively superglued to half a basis point.

"People are disinclined to sell because of low prices, disinclined to move because of the uncertainty in the economy and disinclined to remortgage because their rate is already very low.

"While there are some exceptional 5-year fixes at the moment, starting from around 3.29%, you need to tick all the boxes to get them.

"The longer the troubles in the Eurozone remain unresolved, the more likely both variable and fixed rates will start to rise.

"The slow-motion train wreck that is the Eurozone is hardly engendering confidence, among lenders and borrowers alike.

"Looking forward, we expect 2012 to mirror 2011, which means a largely flat market with relatively low transaction levels. Mortgage transactions will be more active among higher net worth investors and in buy-to-let.

"A flat market during 2012 is probably the best we can hope for. If we have a Black Swan event — and that cannot be ruled out given the state of the Eurozone — who knows what will happen?"

David Whittaker, managing director of Mortgages for Business, said:

 “Recent improved lending figures are due to lenders needing to hit targets before the end of the year rather than
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