Stamp duty deadline boosts March lending

Gross mortgage lending in March was an estimated £13.4 billion, according to the Council of Mortgage Lenders.

Related topics:  Mortgages
Millie Dyson
23rd April 2012
Mortgages
This represents a 30% rise from £10.3 billion in February and a 17% rise from March 2011.

This is the highest monthly total since September 2011 and the highest monthly total for March since 2008.

Gross lending for the first quarter of this year was therefore an estimated £34.4 billion, down from £37.8 billion in the previous quarter but a 13% increase from the first three months of 2011.

In today’s CML market commentary, CML chief economist Bob Pannell comments:

"The increase in our March lending estimate appears to be almost entirely due to stronger house purchase activity. The most likely explanation is that buyers wanted to complete their transactions before the end of the stamp duty concession on 24 March.

"The underlying picture for house purchase activity has been relatively buoyant in recent months. However, we would be surprised if we did not see a drop in transactions over the next few months, following the end of the stamp duty concession, especially as it will take some while for NewBuy transaction levels to build."

Mark Dyason, director of independent mortgage broker, Edinburgh Mortgage Advice, commented:
 
"The March spike reflects the flurry of activity generated by the stamp duty holiday. It's wholly artificial.
 
"Expect the April data to show a big drop-off in activity levels, as the mortgage market falls back to earth with a bump.
 
"Stamp duty holidays aside, it's not looking great for the mortgage market moving forward.
 
"Over the past couple of months, lenders have significantly tightened their scorecards. A credit score that would have secured a loan six months ago now has every chance of being rejected.
 
"Lenders are being squeezed hard by increased capital requirements, higher funding costs on the wholesale markets due to the eurozone crisis and previous bad lending.
 
"Even if they did want to lend, many of the banks wouldn't be able to anyway. Many of the big lenders are in an almost impossible position and borrowers are feeling it.
 
"With SVRs and offer rates going up across the board, we are seeing an increase in people looking to remortgage onto longer term fixed rate products.
 
"If you have a good chunk of equity or a big enough deposit, you can get five year fixed rates as low as 3.89%, which is quite something.
 
"If you have a very small deposit, you could be paying twice as much as this.
 
"It may seem an extreme measure but for the mortgage market to return to normal the Government could do worse than sell the likes of RBS and Lloyds, which will remain zombies until they are given renewed life through a massive capital injection."

Christine Newton of Census Financial Planning commented:
 
"So the stamp duty holiday ended with a modest bang, and not the whimper some had feared.
 
"But while March's brief spike in both house sales and mortgage lending was welcome, April risks being the morning after the night before.
 
"There will be some residual mortgage applications left in the system from first time buyers who failed to beat the stamp duty deadline.
 
"But there is every chance that, stripped of impetus provided by the stamp duty holiday, lending will slump again.
 
"With no slackening of lending criteria in sight, access to mortgages is still very tight and the stamp duty holiday was a vital stimulus.
 
"Its true benefit will perhaps only be noticed now it has gone. Ending it was premature, and the government needs to do more to help first time buyers.
 
"If not, there's every danger that both the housing and mortgage markets will continue sleepwalking into next year."

Peter Rollings, CEO of estate agent Marsh & Parsons, comments on the CML’s March gross lending figures:

“March’s lending figures were astronomical by post-2008 standards, and demonstrate both the underlying buyer demand and the value of the stamp duty holiday to first-timers as they rushed to move before the deadline. However, there are clouds on the horizon, with lenders starting to push up mortgage rates for both existing borrowers and new buyers.

"While rates are still relatively cheap historically, when you factor in the re-instatement of stamp duty for first-time buyers, it’s likely that many buyers at the lower end of the market will face an uphill struggle financially. It shouldn’t be forgotten that first time buyers are the engine room of the market, and this will have the effect of dampening buyer activity on a national level.
 
“In London, the market has moved up a gear of late – despite the changes to stamp duty, with the sub £2m bracket especially vibrant. The capital is somewhat insulated against tightening mortgage conditions - with activity buoyed by buyers who are typically equity rich or cash buyers. However, if lending does contract in the future, it will become increasingly difficult to view London as anything other than a different entity altogether to the national housing market.”

Paul Hunt, managing director of Phoebus Software said:

“Unfortunately, the crest of every wave is followed by a trough and March’s mighty growth in lending is no exception. These figures demonstrate the vital importance of the stamp duty saving the government withdrew at the end of last month. First-time buyers surged through the closing door in the run-up to March 24h and we can expect that those who didn’t make the cut to spend the next few months sitting on their hands, having to save larger deposits before they can take the plunge.

“But at least the figures demonstrate there is still a subst
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