BoE: no evidence of slowing activity post-Referendum

Despite business uncertainty rising "markedly" following the EU Referendum, the Bank of England says that there is "no clear evidence of a sharp general slowing in activity".

Related topics:  Finance News
Rozi Jones
20th July 2016
bank of england boe
"Lenders still seem keen to lend, which will help support the market, while it looks as though the next move in interest rates will be downwards, making mortgages cheaper still and providing a further boost."

The Bank's research shows that many firms are only just beginning to formulate new business strategies in response to the vote and, for the time being, are seeking to maintain ‘business as usual’.

Many firms said there is currently a lack of information on which to base major decisions.

As yet, the Bank said there were few suggestions of disinvestment, such as exiting the United Kingdom in the near term.

However it did report that a number of companies were considering alternative European locations for aspects of their business, and some contacts within large international firms expected their continental European operations to receive a greater share of future investment than their UK ones.

But some companies mentioned the possibility of moving production back to the United Kingdom, or increasing the domestic sourcing of products, in light of sterling’s fall.

One effect of the Referendum has been a reduction in overall in corporate deal-making activity, as some planned mergers and acquisitions.

Housebuilding companies have also become more cautious in their approach to land acquisition. More generally for construction firms, there were expectations that output growth would slow over the coming year as companies became more cautious about initiating projects.

There were also reports of a dip in housing market sentiment in the days immediately following the referendum, but transactions had so far "been more resilient than some contacts had expected".

Credit conditions were thought to have tightened slightly in financial markets. But the early evidence indicated that banks’ appetite to lend had been maintained following the referendum decision.

Jeremy Leaf, north London estate agent and former RICS residential chairman, said: "The Bank of England’s findings bear out what we have seen since the referendum. Yes, many people have been knocked sideways by the result but since then, they have just been getting on with it.

"The Bank of England survey refers to a dip in housing market sentiment immediately following the referendum but transactions have been more resilient than expected. On the ground we have seen determination on behalf of people to negotiate hard and a new sense of realism emerge.

"Lenders still seem keen to lend, which will help support the market, while it looks as though the next move in interest rates will be downwards, making mortgages cheaper still and providing a further boost."

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