Consumer confidence in the outlook for house prices has continued to fall from its peak in July 2014, now dropping to its lowest level since June 2013.
With Halifax forecasting an easing of house price growth to 3%-5% for 2015, the fall in house price expectations mirrors a fall in consumer confidence from its peak in Q2 2014.
Of those surveyed, a net balance of +25 now believe the next 12 months will be a good time to buy – an increase of 14 points since September 2014. Sentiment towards buying is stronger among those who already own their own home, with 62% of owner occupiers stating 2015 will be a good time to buy, compared to 29% who think it will be a bad time (net balance of +33).
In contrast, selling sentiment has fallen to a net balance of +14, dropping 5 points since September 2014, while positive selling sentiment fell by 6 points among owner occupiers between September and November 2014 to +25.
65% of Scottish consumers believe 2015 will be a good time to buy, compared to 56% of Britons. Conversely, only 48% of those surveyed in the Midlands had the same outlook.
People in Scotland and North England are the least likely to say it will be a good time to sell (38% and 42% compared to an average of 51%), while people in the South of England (excluding London) are significantly more likely than overall to say 2015 will be a good time to sell (62% compared to 51%, respectively).
Craig McKinlay, Mortgages Director at Halifax, said:
“The strengthening in the UK economy over the past couple of years has seen a steady convergence between the proportions of people who believe it is a good time to buy and a good time to sell. The outlook for house prices in 2015 is for growth to moderate but continue to increase, which perhaps explains why the proportion thinking it will be a good time to buy is again greater than the proportion thinking it will be a good time to sell.
“With an interest rate rise expected late 2015, possibly into early 2016 it will be interesting to see what impact the slight reduction in affordability has here.”
