"Despite both of the UK’s major parties’ stated ambitions to tackle the housing crisis, their manifesto plans fall short given the scale of the problem."
The average rate of housebuilding over the last ten years in England has been 166,000 homes a year. The Conservative Manifesto commitment to build a million homes between April 2015 and the end of 2020 is the equivalent of 175,000 a year, lifting the current 10-year average rate of growth by only 9,000 a year.
Labour has pledged to build a million homes by the end of 2022 - 200,000 a year - and the Conservatives have pledged a further half a million homes by then.
But despite stated ambition to tackle the housing crisis, both major parties’ policies will result in the housing surplus in England shrinking by the end of the next Parliament.
England had a housing surplus last year of 2.2%, or 504,079 homes, falling to 1.9% this year or 434,744 homes. Property Partner’s analysis shows that this surplus will fall to 346,977 or 1.4% by the end of 2022.
Using ONS projected household growth and the current rate of housebuilding, England is predicted to face a housing shortfall beginning in 2025 with an initial deficit of 877 homes and just over 25.2m households. From that point on, the country is expected to face a widening deficit, reaching 452,598 homes or 1.6% by 2039. England will then be home to an estimated 27,551,000 dwellings and 28,003,598 households.
In London, a shortfall has existed since 2014 when it reached 24,057 homes or 0.7%. It reached 3.8% or 139,919 homes this year and by 2022 it is predicted the deficit will reach 7.3% or 288,623 homes, even with the Labour and Tory manifesto pledges factored in.
At current housebuilding rates, London’s deficit will climb to an estimated 731,724 homes or 15.1% come 2039 as the capital grows to an expected 4.8m households.
Mark Weedon, Head of Research at property investment marketplace Property Partner, said: “The housing market is broken, there are not enough homes and despite both of the UK’s major parties’ stated ambitions to tackle the housing crisis, their manifesto plans fall short given the scale of the problem.
“London’s chronic imbalance of supply and demand is not being addressed, and by 2025 the housing shortage will have spread across England. This represents one of the biggest threats to family life and consumer spending in this country.
“It’s high time politicians realised nothing short of a step change in housebuilding will ever get close to delivering the homes required to meet our growing population.”
