"Most housing/mortgage market stakeholders would certainly be in favour of housing being given a much stronger position in the Government cabal."
On the surface of course, nothing has changed – we still have HMS Conservative Government floating along, we still have Captain Theresa May, and we still have the vast majority of her Cabinet remaining in their officer positions – but below ‘mid-ships’ there would appear to be the potential for rumblings amongst the crew and it’s fair to say that a Brexit-sized iceberg could also strike at some point in the future.
What we do know is that, when it comes to politics, nothing is impossible and we should always expect that huge giant lump of ice to stray into the shipping lane of even the ‘strongest’ and most ‘stable’ of vessels. Undoubtedly, at a time of great uncertainty for the entire country, things just got... well, even more uncertain. How do you solve a problem like this, Theresa?
But first, let’s look a little closer to home in terms of what might be coming towards our market in the weeks and months ahead. Well, let’s be frank, it’s likely to be very little. The housing market did figure rather prominently during the election campaign; indeed, one might say it figured far more prominently than during any election in the past few decades. However, what will this mean now the ‘result’ is in?
Well, consider this. I write this article on Monday afternoon – the 12th June; Theresa May’s Cabinet reshuffle – at least the major players in it – were all announced/re-appointed yesterday. Of interest to us is that Sajid Javid is back as Secretary of State for Communities & Local Government, which includes housing but (as we know) there is normally a specific Housing Minister.
Last Parliament it was Gavin Barwell, who I’m sure you all know was both Housing and Minister for London – an odd combo but there you go – but given he turned a slim majority into a 5,000-plus loss in his seat he has instead been parachuted in as May’s new Chief of Staff.
So, we know we’re getting a new Housing Minister – I think the 15th in 20 years – but we know not who it is. This appointment wasn’t announced yesterday, despite May suggesting less than 24 hours ago that one of her (minority) Government’s priorities would be housing. If the new Housing Minister is – once again – denied a permanent seat at the Cabinet table it will probably tell us all we need to know about the importance that is being placed on this market, in particular solving the acute supply problems.
Now, you might suggest that the Government have bigger fish to fry since last week; that they have rather larger problems to sort out, and there might be a grain of truth to this. However, what signal does this really send? Especially, when you compare it to Labour’s manifesto commitment to a new Housing Department and a Minister with their place guaranteed in Cabinet. You might not agree with the politics, but I suspect most housing/mortgage market stakeholders would certainly be in favour of housing being given a much stronger position in the Government cabal.
But, let’s be honest, this Government’s priorities will have changed significantly in the past few days. One can’t even look at the manifesto and pick out the policies that will make it to the Queen’s Speech, because we don’t yet know how the ‘confidence and supply’ agreement will work with the DUP, what their demands will be, what they will not be willing to support, and what Bills will be put forward.
Overall, it’s almost impossible to second-guess how today’s political turbulence will impact across the economy, and our sectors in particular. This would be a worry at any other time, but add in the negotiations for Brexit, and you alter the environment even more radically. While all we can do is stick to the day job and attempt to make the present work as best as possible, there is likely to be many uncertain days ahead to get through.
