IMF cuts UK's 2017 growth forecast to 1.7%

The International Monetary Fund has lowered its 2017 growth forecast for the UK to 1.7%.

Related topics:  Finance News
Rozi Jones
24th July 2017
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"For the UK to grow at the pace projected by the IMF in 2017, it will have to see a sharp pick-up in the last half of this year."

The IMF says the 0.3% cut was due to "weaker-than-expected activity in the first quarter".

By contrast, growth projections for 2017 have been revised up for many euro area countries, including France, Germany, Italy, and Spain, where growth for in Q1 was generally above expectations.

The IMF's 2018 estimate for the UK is currently unchanged at 1.5%.

In its latest Inflation Report, the Bank of England cut its GDP growth forecast in the short term but raised its projections in the medium term, predicting growth of 1.7% in 2018 and 1.8% in 2019.

In November 2016, the OBR forecast growth to slow to 1.4% in 2017, attributed to lower investment and weaker consumer demand, driven, respectively, by greater uncertainty and by higher inflation resulting from sterling depreciation.

As the effects of Brexit uncertainty diminish, the OBR forecasts growth recovering to 1.7% in 2018, 2.1% in 2019 and 2020, and 2% in 2021.

Michael Baxter, economics commentator for The Share Centre, said: “The IMF is now estimating that the UK economy will grow at 1.7% this year, from 2.0% previously estimated. Such a projection could be made to look way too optimistic within a few days.

“The UK economy grew by 0.2% in Q1. Within a few days we will have data on Q2, but it may well show that the UK economy grew by 0.3 per cent in the quarter. If that is right, then for the UK to grow at the pace projected by the IMF in 2017, it will have to see a sharp pick-up in the last half of this year.

“However, with real wages falling, and likely to carry on falling, political instability and uncertainty over Brexit is likely to have a negative impact on corporate investment, there is a good chance that the second half of this year will only see a modest improvement on the first half.

“Investors shouldn’t be surprised if the IMF downgrades again.

“It’s projection for the global economy is more credible, however. It projects global growth of around 3.5% this year, a reasonably brisk pace – suggesting that for investors, the best opportunities may lie beyond the UK, or with UK listed companies with high international exposure.”

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