Inflation rises to two-year high of 1.2%

The Consumer Prices Index rose by 1.2% in the year to November 2016, following a surprise fall to 0.9% in October, according to the latest ONS statistics.

Related topics:  Finance News
Rozi Jones
13th December 2016
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"Swap markets imply just a 27% chance of a UK rate rise by the end of 2017, and just a 3% chance they will be higher than 0.5%."

The rate in November was the highest since October 2014, when it was 1.3%.

Rises in the prices of clothing, motor fuels and a variety of recreational and cultural goods and services were the main contributors to the increase in the rate.

CPIH, which the ONS will adopt as its preferred measure of inflation in March 2017, rose by 1.4% in the year to November 2016, up from 1.2% in October.

Ben Brettell, Senior Economist at Hargreaves Lansdown, commented: "Sterling weakness continues to raise the cost of inputs for UK businesses, and there are signs these cost increases are slowly being passed on to consumers. This in turn could hit consumer spending, which has so far held up well despite Brexit-related uncertainty.

"October’s fall looked like a blip, and today’s figures mark a resumption of an upward trend. The Bank of England expects inflation to climb throughout next year, hitting 2.7%, and remaining above the 2% target until 2020. Other forecasters see a much sharper rise to as much as 4%.

"However, the effect of the weak pound, assuming it doesn’t fall much further, is a one-off factor which will fall out of the figures in due course. The longer-term picture is one of structurally low inflation – due in part to demographic reasons. The baby boomers are starting to retire and have already gone thorough their consumption phase – they have bought their houses, cars and consumer goods. The generation behind them is saddled with debt and struggling to get on the housing ladder. Workers don’t have the bargaining power over pay they once did, and wage growth looks set to be anaemic at best.

"All this should mean less inflationary pressure, lacklustre economic growth, and little upward pressure on interest rates. Swap markets imply just a 27% chance of a UK rate rise by the end of 2017, and just a 3% chance they will be higher than 0.5%."

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