Inflation turns negative as prices drop 0.1%

The Consumer Prices Index fell by 0.1% in the year to September 2015, compared to no change in the year to August 2015, according to the latest ONS statistics.

Related topics:  Finance News
Rozi Jones
13th October 2015
decline graph chart down decrease drop

A smaller than usual rise in clothing prices and falling motor fuel prices were the main contributors to the fall in the rate.

The rate of inflation has now been at or around 0.0% for most of 2015.

CPIH (not a National Statistic) grew by 0.2% in the year to September 2015, down from 0.3% in August 2015.

Ben Brettell, Senior Economist, Hargreaves Lansdown, commented:

"The usual suspect of falling fuel costs, coupled with smaller-than-usual increases in clothing prices pushed the UK inflation rate back into negative territory in September, once again putting no pressure on the Bank of England to lift interest rates.

"The rate of consumer price inflation has now been zero (or close enough to make no difference) since February. It’s expected to climb in the coming months as the big drop in fuel prices falls out of the year-on-year calculation, but core inflation, which strips out volatile components like food and energy, also remains weak at 1.0%. This offers little suggestion that underlying inflationary pressures are building in the UK economy, despite continuing strength in wage growth. Figures due out tomorrow are expected to show pay growing at 3.1%.

"Downside risks to the UK economy are still numerous. Global concerns, especially surrounding China and other emerging markets, have been well-documented, but there are also signs the domestic economy could be faltering. Last week’s PMI survey for the services sector, which accounts for around three-quarters of economic output, showed business activity growing at its slowest pace for more than two years.

"While the impact of rising wages remains notable by its absence in the inflation figures, I expect the Bank of England to focus on the risks and exercise caution on interest rates. I see them remaining at 0.5% into the second half of next year, and quite possibly even longer than that."

Richard Pike, Phoebus Software sales director, says:

“Today the Consumer Prices Index for September 2015 showed a fall of 0.1% year on year.  This won’t be a surprise to many as the rate of inflation throughout the year has been steady at, or around, 0.00%, way below the target of 2%.  There will be continued calls from some for the Bank of England to rate the base rate to try to jump start inflation, but this is a tactic that the governor of the Bank of England has never favoured.  

“While oil prices are at their current low the rate of inflation is unlikely to increase and consumer confidence is surely going to be high as we head towards the Christmas spending period.  We could see a very buoyant end to the year.”

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