UK inflation rises 0.6% to 20-month high

CPI inflation rose by 0.6% in the year to July 2016, taking it to the highest level seen since November 2014.

Related topics:  Finance News
Rozi Jones
16th August 2016
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"Underlying inflationary pressure is hard to see, with Brexit-related economic uncertainty likely to dampen both consumer spending and wage growth in the short term."

This compares with a 0.5% rise in the year to June however the ONS, who releases the data, says that inflation remains "relatively low in the historic context".

The main contributors to the increase in the rate were rising prices for motor fuels, alcoholic beverages and accommodation services, and a smaller fall in food prices than a year ago.

These upward pressures were partially offset by falls in social housing rent.

Ben Brettell, senior economist at Hargreaves Lansdown, says that "in truth the small tick upwards in the headline rate to 0.6% tells us little", as the ONS collects data in the middle of each month, i.e. just two or three weeks after the Referendum vote.

Brettell adds that it's "almost certain that the weaker pound will cause inflation to rise more sharply in the coming months", with forecasts suggesting that CPI inflation could ultimately reach 3%, which Brettell believes "will be a temporary factor".

Brettell continues: "Underlying inflationary pressure is hard to see, with Brexit-related economic uncertainty likely to dampen both consumer spending and wage growth in the short term. The Bank of England is rightly ignoring what should be a temporary spike in inflation when it sets monetary policy. The Bank is widely expected to leave rates on hold at its next meeting in September, though swap markets are pricing in around a 33% chance of a cut to zero by the end of the year."

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