What impact will Trump have on UK financial services?

Financial markets reacted sharply to the US election result this morning, with the US dollar falling and market expectations of a Federal interest rate hike in December scaled back.

Related topics:  Finance News
Rozi Jones
9th November 2016
Donald Trump
"At the very least it looks like we will have fewer transactions, tighter lending criteria, less housebuilding and higher rents"

In the coming weeks and months, Lars Kreckel, Global Equity Strategist at Legal & General Investment Management, said that forces will pull prices in both directions.

He explained: "On the one hand investors may be put off holding US dollar denominated assets with greater domestic uncertainty, while on the other hand the dollar could benefit from Trump’s proposal to encourage US corporates to repatriate some of their overseas cash holdings.

"It’s a similar story for fixed income assets. While an initial risk-off reaction has pushed bond yields down, it strikes us that many of Trump’s policies could ultimately be inflationary. Protectionist policies could drive up import prices, anti-immigration policies could boost domestic wages and significant fiscal stimulus could add further to inflationary pressures.

"The increase in current uncertainty has reduced market pricing of a Fed rate hike in December, but the longer-term inflationary pressures could lead to a faster path of rate hikes once markets and circumstances settle down."

Concerns have also been raised about the possible departure of Federal Reserve System Chair Janet Yellen, with Kreckel arguing that "apart from undermining the Fed’s independence, a sudden change in Fed leadership would create unwelcome uncertainty".

Richard Stone, Chief Executive at The Share Centre, added that “investors and markets would likely be concerned if Janet Yellen leaves the Federal Reserve early given some of Donald Trump’s rhetoric during the campaign".

In terms of the impact on the UK market, former RICS residential chairman, Jeremy Leaf, said that "we are likely to see a further period of uncertainty because he will not be able to take any decisive action until he assumes power in mid-January".

Leaf added: "The knock-on effect on sterling and the FTSE inevitably has an impact on confidence here at a time when we’re already nervously anticipating the fall-out from Brexit. At the very least it looks like we will have fewer transactions, tighter lending criteria, less housebuilding and higher rents – which is exactly the opposite of what we’re looking for at the moment."

Calum Bennie, savings expert at Scottish Friendly, agreed, stating: “Donald Trump's win is another body blow for political and economic stability in what has been a year of continued investor uncertainty.

“A combination of lower incomes and economic uncertainty is not good news for the American economy and, by extension, investors. As the old adage goes, when America sneezes the world gets a cold and investors need to keep their nerve while volatility plays out and a new normal starts to emerge.”

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