CML predicts lending to hit eight year high

CML's latest market forecasts have predicted that mortgage lending will ease back modestly in 2015 and thereafter broadly settle, reflecting uncertainties surrounding wider economic developments and housing activity.

Related topics:  Mortgages
Rozi Jones
16th December 2014
pound money house mortgage growth

The report expects gross lending to climb modestly from £207 billion in 2014, to £222 billion in 2015, spread across regulated and BTL lending, house purchase and remortgage.

They did however predict stronger growth to £240 billion in 2016, which would represent the strongest performance since 2008.

With further modest increases in house prices, the trade body expects the value of lending for regulated house purchase to move a little higher to about £120 billion in 2015, compared to £115 billion in 2014.

They have therefore predicted growth in remortgage activity over its forecast period, as current market expectations for base rates mean that the incentives for households to refinance change only slowly over time.

They also highlighted an indirect unintended consequence of the MMR, with more borrowers opting to refinance with their existing lender than in the past.

The forecast concluded:

"Looking ahead over the next two years, housing and mortgage market developments appear well supported by relatively favourable economic fundamentals. However, prudent and sustainable lending in the face of ongoing affordability pressures necessarily limit the further upside scope for mortgage lending."

More like this
CLOSE
Subscribe
to our newsletter

Join a community of over 30,000 intermediaries and keep up-to-date with industry news and upcoming events via our newsletter.