Economic uncertainty could spark rising mortgage rates: AMI
2017 is likely to suffer some bumps in terms of the wider economy but we believe transactions will start to recover from a weaker year in 2016.
Mortgage rates may start to rise irrespective of ongoing loose monetary policy, as global political and economic uncertainty puts pressure on long-term interest rates, according to the latest Quarterly Economic Bulletin from the Association of Mortgage Intermediaries.
Although long-term interest rates fell in the immediate aftermath of August’s decision to cut rates, longer-term swap rates have risen since the start of November and coinciding with Trump’s victory.
The AMI says this will have an effect on mortgage pricing, although it is unlikely to show up until early next year.
The Association has found that lenders are conforming to their usual volume patterns and will likely compete hard for business in the final weeks of the year, but warns that this may drop off in Q1 2017 when the reality of swap pricing and prospect of Article 50 being triggered sets in.
It has urged mortgage lenders to continue to lend steadily, "even when the Brexit battle commences".
The Bulletin stated: "2017 is likely to suffer some bumps in terms of the wider economy but we believe transactions will start to recover from a weaker year in 2016. Remortgage activity continues to be strong and despite an unexpectedly lumpy year for buy-to-let, there remains significant appetite for advice in this sector according to AMI members."