A slight seasonal decline was expected as Easter fell in April this year. Coupled with the extra bank holiday for the royal wedding, it is difficult to gauge underlying trends with any certainty.
In today's market commentary, CML chief economist Bob Pannell said:
"Statistical noise, associated with extended holidays around Easter and the royal wedding, makes it harder to read the immediate market situation. This represents an unfortunate temporary loss of signal, at a time when it would be useful to gauge the resilience of house purchase demand to economic uncertainties and the pressure on household incomes.
"Levels of activity look set to remain broadly flat over the near-term. It now seems unlikely that interest rates will rise much, if at all, this year and this should help keep the market on an even keel."
Brian Murphy, head of lending at independent mortgage brokers, Mortgage Advice Bureau, said:
"As the CML rightly point out, it's difficult and probably unadvisable to read too much into the April data, as this really was an unusual month given the number of bank holidays and the Royal Wedding.
"Before the country packed up and went on an extended break, mortgage activity in the earlier part of April was actually running at February and March levels. But then it went off a cliff. In May to date, activity has picked back up and is running at the levels seen in March and the first half of April.
"In the past fortnight, we have seen an extraordinary period of repricing among lenders, who are vying with each other to attract new business. This is good news for buyers and there are some very competitive rates coming out, even at higher LTVs."
