House prices gather 'fairly brisk pace' in August

UK house prices increased by 0.6% in August, rising at a 'fairly brisk pace', according to the latest Nationwide house price index.

Related topics:  Mortgages
Amy Loddington
30th August 2013
Mortgages

Prices were 3.5% higher than August 2012, although it has been acknowledged that August 2012 was a slow month. This leaves the typical UK home standing at £170,514.

Commenting on the figures, Robert Gardner, Nationwide's Chief Economist, said:

“UK house prices continued  to rise at a fairly brisk pace in August, increasing by 0.6% over the month.  The annual rate of house price growth slowed a little, to 3.5% from 3.9%, but this was to be expected, as July’s figure was flattered  by a low base for comparison. The three month  on three month measure of house prices, which  is a better  measure of the underlying trend, rose by 1.4%, its strongest pace since mid-2010.

“A number of factors appear to be contributing to the recent upturn in house price  growth.    Consumer confidence has increased significantly  in recent months,  thanks to further modest gains in employment and signs that the UK economy is finally gathering momentum.

“An improvement in the availability and a reduction  in the cost of credit,  partly as a result of policy measures such as the Funding for Lending and Help to Buy schemes, is also enabling  more people  to take  their first steps  into the property market.  Indeed, data from the Council of Mortgage Lenders suggests that the recent upturn in activity has been driven by first time buyers, who accounted for 45% of house purchase  loans  in Q2, the  highest  share  since  the  series began in 2005.
 
“While there   have  been  encouraging   signs  that house building  is starting  to recover, construction  is still running well  below  what  is likely to  be required  to  keep up with demand.  New housing starts in England were up 33% in Q2 compared to the same period of 2012, but this is still 36% below  the  levels prevailing  in 2007,  which  were  already below that required to keep pace with household formation.

“The risk is that if demand continues to run ahead of supply affordability  may become stretched.  While house prices are still elevated compared  with incomes, affordability is being supported by the ultra low level of interest rates.  A typical mortgage payment for a first time buyer is currently equal to around 29% of disposable income, in line with the long term average.

“Recent  guidance  from the  Bank  of  England’s  Monetary Policy Committee, that it intends to keep interest rates on hold at least until the unemployment  rate reaches 7%, may also help support confidence amongst potential buyers. However, despite this  guidance, there  is still considerable uncertainty as to the future path of Bank Rate. The Bank of England’s central forecast is that the unemployment rate will not  reach the  threshold  level of 7%, but financial market indicators continue to point to a first rate hike in mid-2015.”
 
Jonathan Harris, director of mortgage broker Anderson Harris, says:

"House prices continue their steady ascent, driven by increased confidence in the economy generally and rising employment. The uptick in prices is also fueled by the rising number of first-time buyers taking advantage of low mortgage rates, indicating that price rises are not yet deterring them from getting on the housing ladder. However, if prices continue to rise at this pace, it could well become an issue.

"Government schemes such as Funding for Lending and Help to Buy will continue to support the growing availability of cheap mortgages in coming months, which should fuel further price increases. However, once interest rates start to rise there could be plenty of people who find themselves in difficulty so it is important that borrowers take care and ensure they don't overstretch themselves in their desperation to become a homeowner."

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