Mortgage trade bodies predict busy 2022 despite fall in gross lending

The mortgage market is in for another busy year, despite rising interest rates and the absence of stamp duty holidays, according to two industry experts.

Related topics:  Mortgages
Rozi Jones
10th February 2022
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"I think we’ll see a five per cent increase in remortgages this year, and a similar rate for product transfers as lenders and brokers have more space to focus on these areas"

Speaking on the latest Accord Mortgages Growth Series podcast, Rob Thomas, principal researcher at IMLA, and Charles Roe, director of mortgages at UK Finance, revisit their now-cautious looking predictions from last year and call out existing business as a key area for broker opportunity in 2022.

Rob, who had said in March last year that he’d revise up his initial forecast of £283bn if he was reforecasting – to the surprise of many – explains the £300bn barrier was in fact broken due to stamp duty holiday extensions and low Bank rates that had made more people purchase a house than expected.

This year, Charles anticipates the larger gross lending figure of the two industry bodies, albeit down 11% on 2021, and both experts suggest brokers and lenders are in for a busy year of remortgage and product transfer activities.

Rob said: “I think we’ll see a five per cent increase in remortgages this year, and a similar rate for product transfers as lenders and brokers have more space to focus on these areas after a hectic year with stamp duty last year.”

The two-part podcast also explores how Covid overshadowed the anticipated impact of Brexit on the housing market, questions the Financial Policy Committee’s analysis for the stress testing consultation, and calls on developers and government to find a solution to the housing crisis, particularly for downsizers, that’s beneficial and fair for all.

Jeremy Duncombe, managing director of Accord Mortgages who hosted the podcast, said: “Last year’s podcast was held in high regard by many brokers so we couldn’t wait to get both Rob and Charles back to revisit their predictions and share their thoughts on how this year could shape up – it’s always fascinating to hear their differing views, but also their agreement on topics that affect us all in the market.

“It’s another great addition to our Growth Series library, and I’m sure many advisers will benefit from the insight and knowledge of two of the industry’s leading figures to really add value to conversations with clients.”

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