Annual house price growth edges up as activity remains stable: Nationwide

Northern Ireland remains the strongest performer by a wide margin.

Related topics:  House prices,  Housing market
Rozi Jones | Editor, Financial Reporter
1st October 2025
For sale sold signs house

The annual rate of house price growth was 2.2% in September, similar to the 2.1% seen in August, according to the latest Nationwide house price index.

Northern Ireland remained the top performing area, with annual house price growth of 9.6%, while the outer South East was the weakest performing region, with a 0.3% year-on-year rise.

The data shows that most regions saw a slowing in house price growth in Q3 2025.

Northern Ireland remained the strongest performer by a wide margin, with annual house price growth of 9.6% in Q3, which echoes trends seen in the border regions of Ireland in recent quarters. Wales saw a slight increase in annual house price growth to 3.0% (up from 2.6% in Q2), while growth in Scotland slowed to 2.9%, compared with 4.5% last quarter.

England saw a further slowing in annual house price growth to 1.6%, from 2.5% in Q2. Average prices in Northern England (comprising North, North West, Yorkshire & The Humber, East Midlands and West Midlands) were up 3.4% year-on-year, with the North (which incorporates areas, such as Tyneside, Teesside and Cumbria) the top performing region in England – with prices up 5.1% year on year.

Meanwhile average house price growth in Southern England (South West, Outer South East, Outer Metropolitan, London and East Anglia) slowed to 0.7%. This was driven by a marked softening in price growth in Outer Metropolitan and outer South East, the latter being the weakest performing region, with annual growth of 0.3%, down from 2.6% last quarter.

Robert Gardner, Nationwide's chief economist, said: “The annual pace of UK house price growth was little changed in September at 2.2%, marginally stronger than the 2.1% recorded in August. Prices increased by 0.5% month on month, after taking account of seasonal effects.

“The broad stability in the annual rate of house price growth over the past three months mirrors that of activity. The number of mortgages approved for house purchase have been hovering at around 65,000 cases per month, close to the pre-pandemic average (despite the higher interest rate environment).

“Despite ongoing uncertainties in the global economy, underlying conditions for potential home buyers in the UK remain supportive.

“Unemployment is low, earnings are rising at a healthy pace, household balance sheets are strong and borrowing costs are likely to moderate a little further if Bank Rate is lowered in the coming quarters as we, and most other analysts, expect.

“Providing the broader economic recovery is maintained, housing market activity is likely to strengthen gradually in the quarters ahead."

Babek Ismayil, CEO of homebuying platform OneDome, commented: “The latest Nationwide figures suggest the housing market is still walking a fine line - cautious yet surprisingly resilient - shaking off some of the jitters that held it back earlier in the summer.

“Regionally, the story is far from uniform. Northern Ireland continues to power ahead with double-digit growth, while southern England is showing only the faintest pulse, with the outer South East barely above flat at 0.3%. It’s a reminder that local dynamics - from affordability and income levels to demand and stock - are shaping very different outcomes across the UK.

“For sellers, the message is clear: this isn’t a booming market, so pricing competitively is key. Properties listed too optimistically risk stagnating, while buyers who have their finance lined up are in the strongest position to move quickly and negotiate firmly. Even in a stable phase like this, success hinges on being realistic and prepared.

“Stability in prices should offer some reassurance - we are not in freefall, but equally we’re not in a surge. The trajectory for the months ahead will depend heavily on mortgage rates, lender appetite, and clarity around taxation in the Autumn Statement. If borrowing costs ease and policy steadies, we could see modest but steady growth return - a healthier footing for the market in the longer run.”

Jonathan Hopper, CEO of Garrington Property Finders, added: “The headline figure has crept up from falling to flat. In August, Nationwide’s data showed that average prices were falling on both a monthly and a quarterly basis.

“Last month the national average inched back into growth, but we’re still in soft landing territory. The pace of price rises has slowed in most regions, with prices almost stagnant in parts of southern England.

“The slowdown is sharpest in the commuter belt around London, where the annual pace of growth dropped from 2.6% in the second quarter to just 0.3% over the past three months.

“The problem here is that the number of sellers far outstrips the number of serious buyers. Even in highly desirable areas, sellers are having to price their homes keenly just to grab buyers’ attention, and many are offering discounts or sweetening the price in other ways - perhaps by making a contribution to the buyer’s stamp duty costs - to get a deal done.

“This issue is being compounded by the uncertainty surrounding next month’s Budget. Rumours of a shake-up in property and wealth taxes have led many discretionary buyers to sit on their hands and this has applied the brakes to prices in prime areas.

“Things are brisker at lower price points, especially among first-time buyers who are the most likely to benefit from last month’s reduction in the Bank of England's base rate.

“But while these factors matter, the market is ultimately driven by the forces of supply and demand - and this is where the gap between north and south is turning into a gulf.

“Average prices in northern England rose almost five times faster than they did in the south during the third quarter of the year, and Scotland and Wales both posted growth rates four times higher than that of southern England.

“In the south, the abundance of supply compared to the number of buyers has allowed buyers to dictate the tempo. Deals are still being done, but only pragmatic sellers are likely to succeed in what is a very price-sensitive autumn market.

“On the frontline there is a clear distinction between those who need to move and those who want to. Needs-based buyers are progressing their plans but negotiating hard to de-risk against possible fiscal changes, helped by thinner competition from other purchasers.

“Wealthier movers are delaying decisions until the Chancellor shows her hand. This should be one of the market’s busiest times of year, yet it is idling in neutral, split between momentum and paralysis until November’s Autumn Statement releases the handbrake.”

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