For a long time, advisers distribution share of the mortgage market has felt settled, and very positively settled for our sector.
However, when we are responsible for the vast majority of new lending, it is easy to believe the direction of travel can only ever be upwards. That, I think, would be a dangerous mindset to have, especially when you consider the latest forecasts from IMLA. They should give us pause for thought, because they quietly challenge that assumption.
This is not about a sudden drop or any sort of sharp reversal. Adviser share remains very strong by any measure. But there has been a clear shift in expectation.
At the end of 2024, IMLA forecast adviser share would continue to edge higher and would break through the 90% mark in 2026. That view has now changed. Its most recent forecasts show share sitting at around 87% this year and next, with little sign of upward movement in the near term. That is a small downgrade on paper, but it shouldn’t feel meaningless.
Product transfers are a key part of the picture
Any discussion about adviser share has to be seen through the lens of product transfers (PTs). IMLA expects PT volumes to remain very high this year and next. That is not a surprise. We have been in a market where affordability pressures have pushed many borrowers to stay put, and lenders have been more than happy to facilitate that through direct PT journeys.
There is a positive caveat. As rates ease and affordability improves, IMLA expects remortgage activity to pick up and to grow faster than PTs again. That is a positive and is probably reflective of a number of things, not least that aforementioned rate cuts/easing of affordability, but also (I would hope) a much more focused approach to remortgaging clients by advisers rather than facilitating a PT.
However, this does not change the fact that PTs remain a very large part of the overall market and many of them continue to happen without advice.
We should be all too acutely aware that each time a lender retains a borrower through a direct PT, that is business that never reaches an adviser. At scale, even small shifts like this can flatten overall adviser share, and as certain lenders adopt more aggressive attempts to secure mortgage business, this is perhaps why the IMLA forecasts are showing a decreasing share of distribution.
Lender strategies are becoming more divided
It is clear from conversations across the market that lenders are not aligned in how they view distribution. Some are fully committed to advisers and see the intermediary channel as central to their future growth. Others are placing much greater emphasis on direct routes to market.
For those lenders, existing customers are the obvious focus. Direct PTs, targeted prompts to switch, and smoother in-house journeys all help keep borrowers within the same organisation. Beyond that, some lenders are also looking closely at their wider customer base, including current account holders and savers, and seeing them as a natural pool for future mortgage business.
None of this removes the role of advisers, but it does change the balance of where business flows and how often advisers get the chance to compete for it.
High share is not guaranteed
There is an uncomfortable truth the industry should be willing to face. There is no God-given right for advisers to continue taking such a large share of the market forever. Adviser dominance has been earned over time, through better customer outcomes, trust and the ability to guide clients through complex decisions. But it still needs to be defended.
When market share is already close to 90%, there is very little headroom. Any shift in lender behaviour, technology or borrower confidence is likely to show up quickly in the numbers. Flat share at this level should not be dismissed as noise. It should be seen as a signal that the environment could be changing.
Technology, AI and the regulatory backdrop
That wider environment cannot be ignored. Each year, technology is likely to play a bigger role in how mortgages are distributed. Digital journeys improve, processes speed up and automation becomes more capable. The regulator has also made it clear that it sees a role for AI and advanced systems in helping firms meet their Consumer Duty responsibilities.
That matters. If lenders become more confident that automated journeys can deliver acceptable outcomes at scale, the temptation to push more direct distribution will grow. Not overnight, but gradually. Step by step.
This does not mean advice becomes irrelevant, but it does mean the value of advice has to be stated clearly and consistently, rather than assumed.
Why the value of advice still needs defending
None of this should be read as a cause for grave alarm. Advisers still handle the vast majority of new (and existing) mortgage business and clients continue to value human judgement, context and support, particularly when borrowing large sums over long periods. However, the message cannot be taken for granted.
In that context, what advisers can do in response is clear, even if it is not always easy. The answer lies in doubling down on the value of holistic advice and making sure every client relationship is treated as long-term, not transactional.
That means looking beyond the mortgage need itself and ensuring clients are properly supported across protection, later life, estate planning, wider income and financial goals, either directly or through trusted partners. It means making the most of every client interaction, asking the right questions, spotting needs early and staying relevant long after the mortgage has completed.
Advisers who communicate regularly, keep clients informed as rates move, check in at key life stages and explain what is happening in the wider market are far harder to displace than those who only appear when a deal is due to end.
Securing referrals and recommendations also becomes critical, because trusted personal endorsement still cuts through far more effectively than any direct lender message.
In short, advisers need to make themselves indispensable, visible and present, because in a market where no share is guaranteed, the strongest defence remains a deep, trusted and ongoing relationship with the client.
