With the Autumn Budget fast approaching, uncertainty over government housing and tax policy is now the biggest external factor influencing homebuyer activity, ranking ahead of even interest rates and the cost of living.
The survey of 500 UK mortgage brokers by Nottingham Building Society found that one in five (20%) view potential government policy changes as the single most important factor shaping client decisions in the year ahead. By comparison, fewer brokers highlighted mortgage regulation and affordability rules (19%), energy and utility costs (19%) or interest rates (17%). Even the cost of living, which has dominated household finances for much of the past few years, was ranked lower at just 14%.
This heightened concern comes as the Treasury is reported to be weighing radical reforms to the property tax system. One option reportedly under consideration is spreading stamp duty payments over several years rather than as a lump sum, with the aim of reducing upfront costs for buyers. Another proposal would see sellers take on liability above a £500,000 threshold. More radical suggestions include abolishing stamp duty altogether and replacing it with an annual property levy.
Recent data suggests policy uncertainty has already significantly influenced buyer behaviour this year. Seasonally adjusted HMRC figures released in May 2025 revealed that UK residential property transactions fell sharply in April 2025 – down 64% compared to March – as buyers rushed to complete ahead of expected changes.
Broker responses suggest the need for clarity is more important than ever, as households face growing financial pressures. More than one in five (22%) say clients with non-standard careers have had to jump through extra hoops to prove affordability, while 20% say first-time buyers now rely on outside financial support.
One in four (25%) brokers want more product innovation to help a wider range of borrowers, while nearly as many (24%) are calling for better support for those struggling with repayments. One in five (20%) want greater flexibility for vulnerable customers and those with adverse credit.
Aaron Shinwell, chief lending officer at Nottingham Building Society, said: “Brokers are at the heart of the UK mortgage market, advising almost every homebuyer, so their insights give a real-time view of the challenges and decisions people face. What’s clear, with the Budget approaching, is that sweeping changes introduced without careful planning risk creating more uncertainty and reducing market fluidity.
“Any move to annual property taxes would need to be carefully managed to avoid disincentivising downsizing, reducing housing mobility, or creating unpredictable, ongoing costs for retirees and families. These changes could particularly impact pensioners who are ‘asset rich but cash poor’, as well as regions such as London and the South East where a much higher proportion of properties fall above £500,000.
“Policy stability is crucial. Brokers tell us that without it, clients delay decisions, which in turn restricts both supply and demand. That doesn’t just affect those looking to buy or sell today, but has wider consequences for the health of the housing market and the broader economy.
“We support reforms that make the housing system fairer, open up opportunities for first-time buyers and better serve those who are often underserved in today’s market. The Autumn Budget is a vital opportunity for the government to provide clarity and confidence. Done right, reforms can support all parts of the housing market - from first-time buyers to downsizers to renters - and ensure households can make long-term plans with certainty.”
