"We’ve seen an unusual set of factors come together this summer which has created a significant surge in housing market activity, yet we expect price hikes to be short-term."
The firm predicts that annual growth will reach high of 11.4% in October 2020, based on sales agreed in July.
Its latest research forecasts that "exceptional levels of demand" from homebuyers post-lockdown are driving a sharp spike in house price growth which will become evident in Land Registry data when those sales complete this autumn.
The days shows that a significant monthly surge in the value of deals agreed between buyers and sellers in June will translate into 6% growth when those deals complete in September.
Reflecting the spring Covid-19 property market freeze, annual growth is predicted to dip by 1.4% in August 2020, the first annual price fall in thirteen months, before rebounding strongly in September (4.7%) and October (11.4%).
However, reallymoving warns that "remarkable levels of housing market activity" could well be short-lived if the wider economy and jobs market struggle to emerge successfully from Government and lender support, along with the double threat of a second Covid-19 wave alongside a no-deal Brexit.
Rob Houghton, CEO of reallymoving, commented: “We’ve seen an unusual set of factors come together this summer which has created a significant surge in housing market activity, yet we expect price hikes to be short-term.
“This perfect storm has been driven by people having recently spent large amounts of time at home - prompting them to bring forward moves in order to seek additional features such as offices and larger gardens - combined with pent up demand that has been present in the market throughout Brexit and was heightened by this year’s storming spring market being suddenly stopped in its tracks. The temporary stamp duty changes have also provided a massive incentive to buyers to move now, rather than wait.
“The UK is now officially in recession and a sharp rise in unemployment is on the horizon when the furlough scheme comes to an end in October. Combined with the recommencement of mortgage repayments for thousands of homeowners who arranged payment holidays, households could find themselves under significant financial pressure. These factors will dampen demand for property through the late autumn and winter, which is likely to reverse the current spike in house price growth.”
