House prices remain below where they were 20 years ago on an inflation-adjusted basis across a quarter (26%) of Great Britain, according to research by Savills.
The analysis reveals that while house prices have risen by an average of 95% across Great Britain over the past 20 years on a nominal basis (not adjusted for inflation), this averages at less than 9% when adjusted for inflation.
According to Savills, in nearly one-fifth (19%) of Great Britain, house prices have gone up by more than 20% after adjusting for inflation. But in over a quarter (26%) of the country, prices are actually lower than they were 20 years ago in real terms.
Manchester towns top the list for house price growth
London has dominated house price growth over the past 20 years, with 17 of the 20 parliamentary constituencies with the strongest inflation-adjusted house price growth located in the Capital, including Kensington & Bayswater, Walthamstow, and Tottenham.
However, the bulk of this growth has occurred in the period between 2005-2015, with prices on an inflation adjusted basis falling in 44 of London’s 75 parliamentary constituencies over the past 10 years.
The overall top performer for real house price growth over the 20 years is Blackley and Middleton South in suburban Manchester. Here, prices have increased by 71% (50% in the last 10 years alone), although average values remain modest at £219,037.
Gorton and Denton (also in Greater Manchester) and Bristol East were the only other locations outside of London to make the top 20 for real house price growth.
Where real house price values have fallen the most
At the other end of the scale, house prices have fallen the most over the past 20 years (on an inflation adjusted basis) in the North East of England, where 74% of parliamentary constituencies in the region have seen a decline in value, followed by the South West of England (falls to 52% of areas) and Wales (falls to 44% of areas).
Blackpool South sits at the bottom of the list, having experienced a 25% fall in the average house prices over the past 20 years on an inflation-adjusted basis.
Meanwhile, Aberdeen South, a market heavily linked to the fortunes of North Sea oil, has seen the most dramatic change in fortune over the past 20 years. Here, house prices rose strongly in the period 2005-15 but have fallen by almost 50% in real terms over the past 10 years alone.
Torbay is the only location in the South West of England to sit in the bottom 20. Here, values have fallen by 15%. In contrast, the ongoing resurgence of Bristol has meant that three of the top five performers in the South West are constituencies in Bristol.
Lucian Cook, head of residential research at Savills, commented: “In contrast to the ten years to 2005, when house prices rose by an average of 147% in real terms, real house price growth has been muted and unevenly distributed over the past 20 years, Tougher economic conditions heralded the end of inflation-busting housing growth, making it harder for buyers to build up housing wealth, meaning that they have become much more reliant on paying down their mortgage debt.
“The areas that have seen the strongest real house price growth over the past 20 years are dominated by London locations, which experienced robust growth up until 2015. However, growth has reached an affordability ceiling over the past decade, with average incomes unable to keep pace. Blackley and Middleton South sit in complete contrast. Having seen lower than average price growth in the 20 years to 2015, it was well placed to capitalise on the UK entering the second half of its housing market cycle and the resurgence of Manchester in particular.”
