The number of UK residential transactions totalled 95,980 in September, 4% higher than September 2024 and 1% higher than August 2025, the latest HMRC statistics show.
On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, sales are 8% higher than September 2024 and 2% lower than August 2025.
Industry experts say that while the figures might initially show a resilient market, momentum has slowed and the latest data doesn't capture much of the uncertainty generated in the immediate run-up to the Budget.
Ryan McGrath, director of second charge mortgages at Pepper Money, commented: “Today’s data paints the picture of a market pausing for breath in the run-up to the Autumn Budget with affordability pressures still dictating activity. Completions remain steady, but momentum has slowed as buyers and sellers wait to see whether housing or tax reforms could shift the numbers in their favour.
"After several months of gradual easing, average mortgage rates have edged higher again for the first time since February, now sitting around 5% for two and five-year fixes. While rates remain well below last year’s peaks, they continue to make affordability challenging for many households. For homeowners keen to retain an existing low-rate deal, second charge mortgages offer a practical way to leverage equity without remortgaging - allowing borrowers to preserve their main mortgage, which is often on a lower rate than those currently available.
"Attention now turns to the Autumn Budget, where potential measures - including rumoured changes to ISA savings caps and wider tax adjustments - could shape household financial decisions in the months ahead.”
Richard Sexton, commercial director of proptech surveyor portal HouzeCheck, said: “The numbers would be higher if people weren’t hanging back for the Budget. And that doesn’t necessarily make sense. I think there’s next to no chance, for instance, that Rachel Reeves is going to introduce some radical new solution to taxing property – replacing council tax, say, with an annual levy based on a proportion of the value of each home. That would represent a revolutionary overhaul of the way property is taxed: the government doesn’t have the appetite for it. And we’re not going to get a land value tax applied equally to all land, whether or not a house has been built on it – not in a million years.
“But there is an emotional component to the decision to move home or to buy a house. People make irrational decisions and get scared even when they don’t need to.
“Once the Budget is out of the way, I think we are going to see a lot of pent-up demand bursting out of the gates.”
Melanie Spencer, growth director at Target Group, added: “At first glance, this might look as though the market is a little more resilient than it has been. I am not sure that’s the case and I am certainly not signing up for any cautious optimism. Remember, these stats don’t count the uncertainty generated in the immediate run-up to the Budget. That has put a real brake on the market. Buyers have been nervous about wealth taxes, council tax re-evaluations, even mansion taxes. That’s why the market has stumbled a bit recently. In the longer term, I am more optimistic given the easing of mortgage costs from lenders like the Halifax. That will help restore some confidence.”
