Halifax: House price growth slowest since February

According to the latest House Price Index released today by Halifax, house prices in the latest three months (September-November 2014) were 0.7% higher than in the previous three months (June-August 2014).

Related topics:  Mortgages
Rozi Jones
4th December 2014
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This quarterly rate was marginally down from 0.9% in the previous month.

Prices in the three months to November were 8.2% higher than in the same three months a year earlier. On this measure, annual house prices are now growing at their slowest rate since February.

House prices grew by 0.4% between October and November, which reverses the 0.4% monthly decline recorded in October.

Home sales fell below 100,000 in October - to 98,490 - for the first time in 2014.

Nonetheless, current estimates suggest that housing transactions in 2014 will total in excess of 1 million for the second consecutive year. This is the first time since 2006 and 2007 that home sales have exceeded 1 million in successive years.

The volume of mortgage approvals for house purchases – a leading indicator of completed house sales – fell in October, to 59,426.

Approvals have now fallen by 22% from 76,574 in January 2014.

Private housing completions in the first three quarters of 2014 were 10% higher compared with the same period in 2013, at 68,930.

Whilst levels of housebuilding remain well below those required to keep up with the pace of household formation, these latest figures show signs of a revival. A continuation of this upward trend in housebuilding would help to bring demand and supply into better balance, curbing upward pressure on house prices.

Halifax have said that they expect a further moderation in house price growth over the next year.

House prices nationally are expected to increase in a range of 3-5% in 2015. The prospect of higher interest rates at some point in the year and the deterioration in affordability over the past year are expected to be key factors curbing housing demand. But housing demand should be supported by solid economic growth, higher employment, still low mortgage rates and the first gain in ‘real’ earnings for several years. We expect to see a more even regional pattern in house price growth during 2015.

Commenting, Martin Ellis, housing economist, said:

"House prices in the three months to November were 0.7% higher than in the preceding three months. The quarterly rate of increase has now declined for four consecutive months. Annual price growth in the three months to November slowed further, to 8.2% from 8.8% in October.

"Receding buyer interest combined with a revival in private housing completions has brought supply and demand into better balance. These factors have in turn contributed to the easing in house price growth since the summer. But housing demand continues to be supported by a strengthening economy, rising employment levels, still low mortgage rates and the first gain in ‘real’ earnings for several years. We expect a further moderation in house price growth over the next year with prices nationally expected to increase in a range of 3-5% in 2015."

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