Prices increased by 2.9% in England to £296,000, by 2.0% in Wales to £211,000, and by 4.0% in Scotland to £194,000. In Northern Ireland, the average house price reached £185,000 in the second quarter of the year, up 5.5% annually. Within England, the North East recorded the strongest growth at 6.6%, while London was the only region to see a decline, down 0.3%.
Industry commentators said that speculation surrounding the upcoming Autumn Budget and potential reforms to stamp duty is contributing to subdued activity.
Tomer Aboody, director at MT Finance, said lower interest rates have given some buyers renewed confidence but warned that “transactional levels remain stunted” due to uncertainty ahead of the Budget.“Buyers at the higher end of the market in particular have been much quieter, waiting to see what’s in store and whether there will be another rate cut in coming months,” he said. “This further underlines the case for policymakers to take action to reduce or reform stamp duty in order to enable the market to properly function again.”
Chris Storey, chief commercial officer at Atom bank, added that rumours of major changes to the property tax regime have prompted many buyers to delay their plans.
“Why push on with a deal today when holding out for a month or two could mean they save thousands?” he said. “Reform that makes life easier for aspiring buyers would be welcome, so long as it does not supercharge house price growth.”
Despite these challenges, some advisers noted the continued resilience of the market. Lee Williams, national sales manager at Saffron for Intermediaries, said: “Today’s data underscores the housing market’s resilience, with prices continuing to edge higher despite growing uncertainty ahead of the Budget. Limited supply is still placing upward pressure on prices.”
He added that lenders are adapting to affordability challenges: “With affordability pressures persisting, lenders are adapting their products to better support borrowers, making professional advice vital to securing the best deal.”
Emma Cox, managing director of real estate at Shawbrook, said improved mortgage competition and buyer sentiment have sustained activity. However, she warned that affordability constraints continue to steer many would-be buyers toward the rental market.
“While conditions remain challenging for professional landlords, ongoing affordability pressures continue to steer many prospective buyers towards the rental market,” she said. “This is creating opportunities for landlords to meet resilient demand and expand their portfolios.”
Industry experts agreed that the pace of price growth is likely to moderate as the year ends, with the November Budget expected to play a key role in shaping short-term sentiment.
Cox added: “Speculation around new property taxes ahead of the November Budget means many are proceeding with caution. Combined with the typical seasonal slowdown, these factors could influence price movements in the months ahead.”
