Supply and demand imbalance pushes prices down

Hometrack have released their monthly House Price Index indicating that the widening gap between supply and demand is pushing prices down.

Amy Loddington
28th August 2012
Supply and demand imbalance pushes prices down
Key statistics

- Monthly price change: -0.1% (the same as in July)

- % change in new buyers registering with agents: -1.3% (up from -2.1% in July)

- % change in volume of property listing: 0.8% (down from 1.4% in July)

- % change in sales agreed: 6.4% (up from 1.5% in July)

- Average time on the market in weeks: 9.5 (the same as in July)

- % of the asking price being achieved: 93.0% (down from 93.1% in July)

- % of postcodes with price increase over month: 3.6% (down from 7.2% in July)

- % of postcodes with price decrease over month: 27.% (down from 31.6% in July)


Average house prices fell 0.1% in August - the same level as in July.  The falls are linked to a widening supply/demand balance which suggets further downward pressure on prices in the months ahead. Nationally demand fell (-1.3%) for the third month in a row, while supply continued to grow (0.8%) albeit at a slowing rate.  Demand is up by 10% over the year to date while supply has grown by 19%.

In London house prices were unchanged (0%) - the first time this year prices have not increased in the capital.  The time on the market - low by national standards - stands at 5.4 weeks. Levels of price falls across the rest of the country slowed in August. No region reported a price fall in excess of -0.2%.  Prices rose across just 3.6% of the country, while 27.1% of areas registered price falls.

Nationally the time on the market indicator stands at 9.5 weeks but across the north of the ocuntry it now stands at 12 weeks - a return to the highs of March 2011.

The number of sales agreed registered an unseasonal increase - up 6.5%. A prolonged period of bad weather together with the Olympics depressed levels of market activity. This delayed demand led to an unseasonal rise in sales in August, albeit off a low base.

Although buyers remain cautious and price sensitive, correctly priced property is selling well and within a reasonable time frame.

Overall the market remains fragile. Thin volumes and a sluggish market, compounded by seasonal and one-off events is reflected in the volatility of this month's indicators. As the supply/demand balance weakens, we expect to see slow downward pressure on prices over the remainder of 2012.

Richard Donnell, director of research at Hometrack, said:

"Overall, the survey paints a picture of an uncertain market compounded by seasonal factors, a prolonged period of bad weather and the Olympics.

"This said, despite the general uncertainty, agents report that there are buyers in the market but that they remain cautious and highly price sensitive.

"Correctly priced property is selling within a reasonable time."
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