Speaking at Mortgage Adviser Event London at Magazine London on 19th May, Donnell gave an upbeat but pragmatic assessment of the market, covering first-time buyers, buy-to-let, house prices and the future of mortgage advice.
"People want to move home," he said. "Last week there were the most sales agreed for 10 years. The appetite is there." Donnell expects around 1.2 million housing transactions this year, broadly in line with 2024, supported by steadily improving affordability, a large supply of homes for sale and strong earnings growth.
Donnell noted that the outstanding mortgage book is heavily skewed towards low loan-to-value borrowing, with the vast majority of existing mortgages sitting below 50% LTV. That means lenders have both the incentive and the ability to automate more remortgage and product transfer decisions.
"I think you should expect a bit more automation of low-risk lending decisions by big mortgage lenders," he said. "You just need to focus on where you can add the most value and get the greatest commission."
For Donnell, that means leaning into the segments where complex cases demand human expertise, such as higher-LTV first-time buyers, portfolio landlords, later life borrowers and anyone navigating a complicated income picture. "The people who aren't served by the mortgage market at the moment need the advice," he said. "Don't get too angry about maybe doing less and less stuff that lenders might automate."
Donnell also observed that the scale of failed property sales creates leakage for broker pipelines, adding that across Great Britain, just over half of homes listed for sale successfully complete a transaction within a year and that in London, the success rate falls below 40%, with half of those who do sell having to cut their asking price first.
"If you did full mortgage applications on all this stuff, you've got one hell of a lot of leakage of business that's not going to turn into any commission," he said. His advice to brokers acting for homeowner clients: encourage them to think carefully about realistic valuations before listing, and ideally before making an offer on their next property. "If a home hasn't sold within four to six weeks, it's not going to sell at that price."
On buy-to-let, Donnell was measured, adding: "If you're not doing buy-to-let for corporate, limited companies, you're just not where the growth is."
He was optimistic about landlords who treat property as a business focused on cash flow rather than capital gains and leverage, particularly in higher-yield markets in the North East and Scotland. Rental growth, while slowing from its recent highs of 6% annually, is expected to continue in the 1–3% range, supported by ongoing demand, even as migration and the first-time buyer market ease some pressure.
Donnell closed on a positive note for brokers, stressing that whatever automation does to more straightforward cases, most borrowers still face genuine complexity such as inheritance planning, equity release, high-LTV purchases, and irregular income.
He concluded: "Is AI going to replace financial advice? No. The people who aren't served by the mortgage market at the moment need the advice. Everything's more complicated, and consumers have got so much coming at them. The need for a human to help them is only going up."
Mortgage Adviser Event London took place on 19th May at Magazine London, bringing together advisers, lenders and mortgage professionals from across the industry. The event featured more than 70 exhibitors and 14 seminar sessions covering regulation, lending, technology, adviser business workshops and market developments.
