Confidence reaches a new low in October

Confidence fell for the fifth month in a row in October to a new low of 36 points, with Consumers expecting house prices to fall by 0.6% over the next six months, report Nationwide

Millie Dyson
17th November 2011
Confidence reaches a new low in October
Robert Gardner, Nationwide's Chief Economist, said:

"Consumer confidence continued to slide in October, falling by nine points to a new all time low of 36. The Index has now fallen for five months in a row, leaving it languishing five points below the previous low of 41 recorded in February this year.

"The confidence index, which began in May 2004, is now more than forty points below its long run average of 78.

"There have been a number of factors holding back confidence in recent months.  A wave of disappointing economic news at home and ongoing uncertainty surrounding the Euro crisis has dealt a heavy blow to sentiment.

"Pressures on household budgets have also intensified, with underlying wage growth running at less than half the rate of inflation and the jobs market showing renewed signs of weakness.

"Employment dropped by a substantial 197,000 in the three months to September - not far off the pace of job losses recorded during the depths of the recession.

"In early October the Bank of England expanded its asset purchase scheme, which should help to stimulate the economy in the months ahead, although it is likely to take some time before the benefits are felt by consumers.

Growing consumer pessimism in October

"Mounting concerns about the state of the UK economy was a key factor undermining confidence in October. 

"Just 3% of consumers described the current economic situation as "good" and a similarly low 13% expect it to improve over the next six months. 

"Confidence in the economy is likely to remain shaky until there is some sign of a resolution to the Eurozone crisis and that the UK economy is starting to regain momentum.

"The 14 point slide in the Expectations Index to its lowest ever reading of 48, suggests that people anticipate tough times ahead. 

"The survey suggests that people are already finding it tough. Consumers' assessment of their present situation fell three points in October to its second lowest reading on record.

Consumers still cautious towards spending

"Against the challenging economic backdrop it's no surprise that consumers are taking a cautious attitude towards spending. The Spending Index fell by two points in October.

"Nearly half of consumers viewed it as a bad time to make a major purchase in October, compared to a quarter who viewed it as a good time to buy.  Attitudes towards household goods purchases also weakened marginally during the month.

"The downbeat mood extended to the housing market, where consumers expect prices to fall by 0.6% over the next six months."
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