Halifax: house prices remained remarkably stable in 2011

House prices in the three months to November were 0.6% lower than in the previous three months, report the Halifax.

Millie Dyson
6th December 2011
Halifax: house prices remained remarkably stable in 2011
Commenting, Martin Ellis, housing economist, said:

"House prices in the three months to November were 0.6% lower than in the previous three months. Prices fell by 0.9% between October and November. This followed October's 1.2% gain, therefore, continuing the very mixed monthly pattern seen this year.

"Overall, house prices have remained remarkably stable in 2011 despite the difficult and deteriorating economic climate and the substantial pressure on households' finances.

"The UK average price now is only marginally lower than at the end of 2010. In addition, activity has recently shown a few signs of strengthening a little.

"We expect the market to remain broadly unchanged in terms of both prices and sales over the coming few months as demand and supply conditions alter little."

House prices in the three months to November were 0.6% lower than in the preceding three months. This measure of the underlying trend was negative for the second successive month following three consecutive increases.

On a monthly basis, house prices fell by 0.9% in November. This continued the very mixed picture shown by the more volatile monthly figures. There has been an even split of monthly price rises and falls this year with five of each and one month of no change.

The average UK house price in November was marginally lower than at the end of last year. The average price in November was 0.7% lower than in December 2010 on a seasonally adjusted basis, at £161,731.

Annually, prices in November were 1.0% lower as measured by the average for the three months to November against the same period a year earlier. This continues the improvement experienced since May when prices were 4.2% lower and is the smallest annual fall since November 2010 (-0.7%).

Signs of a modest pick-up in housing activity.

The industry-wide number of mortgages approved to finance house purchase - a leading indicator of completed house sales – increased by 3% in October and was 13% higher than in October 2010.

The seasonally adjusted total of 52,700 in October was both the highest this year and the highest since December 2009.

Tracy Kellett, director of the home buying agency BDI Homefinders, commented:

“Taken together, the house price yardsticks are rapidly coming to resemble the Pushmi-pullyu of Doctor Dolittle fame.

“Last week the Land Registry said that price falls had accelerated in October. Barely a day later, the Nationwide’s chief economist was describing the November market as “surprisingly resilient”.

“Now the Halifax House Price Index has muddled the debate even further, by issuing a decidedly downbeat snapshot of the market.

“And so the image of the fictional beast which pulls itself in opposing directions persists. Behind the apparently contradictory data lies a housing market which is still essentially stagnant, with paltry levels of transactions.

“This is why tiny variations in the numbers will make house price indexes fluctuate wildly. But such volatility should never be confused with progress.

“The Land Registry data is the most authoritative – and it shows that nationally, prices are falling.

“But leaving aside all the confusing number crunching, the fundamentals of house selling and buying haven’t changed. With so few of them around, buyers can afford to be choosy.

“But good properties that are priced sensibly are selling well. Detailed and careful research of the local market is still the only way to gauge whether a property is priced realistically.”

Liya Fateh, director of the estate agent review site MeetMyAgent.co.uk comments:

"At the moment, it's almost impossible to predict which way house prices are going to trend from month to month. For consumers it's almost pointless using any of the house price indices as a measure of market conditions because they're so topsy turvy.

"The concern is whether a fragile property market, living off scraps, is robust enough to cope with another cold winter. Mirroring the mild weather the UK has enjoyed up until now, property market conditions have been fairly benign, but as we enter traditionally quiet months for house purchases, the mild headwinds could well be about to get a little chillier.

"If you want a true measure of market conditions, walk into any estate agent's office and they will tell you the same thing - there is a large amount of stock that is taking a long time to shift, and the only properties which are flying out the door are those where the sellers are willing to drop their prices to tempt buyers.

"There are buyers out there, but they are holding all the cards and on the hunt for pre-New Year bargains. With so much choice at the lower end of the market, only the motivated seller who is willing to price their home sensibly is likely to find a buyer."
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