" ‘Brexit’ is not a word our branches are hearing on the ground anymore, but instead, customers are much more focused on what is happening with interest rates and stamp duty"
A Treasury paper published in May 2016 predicted that demand for housing would fall due to higher costs of lending, and at the end of the two years house prices would be around 10% lower relative to a vote to remain in the EU.
However, analysis by Haart finds that house prices have risen by 9% since the Brexit vote and the level of residential transactions is currently 13% higher than the same time last year.
Its figures show that demand for housing has also risen by 8% and is currently at its highest level since May 2016.
Haart's figures negate recent data from Your Move, which shows that house price growth continues to slow, with a monthly drop of 0.1% and annual growth of just 0.9% - the lowest level in six and a half years.
Acadata's analysis of the figures suggested that the annual rate of house price growth will be in negative territory by the end of the year.
Additionally, 30 housing market specialists recently predicted that prices will tumble if Britain fails to reach a Brexit deal and expect an annual fall of 1.6% this year and 0.1% in 2019.
Paul Smith, CEO of Haart, commented: “For over two years we have been listening to bold claims from industry commentators and public figures about the impact that Brexit will have on the housing market. But what we are seeing on the ground is proving them otherwise. The number of buyers entering the market is the highest in two years, and the number of property transactions in August is the most seen since November 2016. Now, so close to the end of the Brexit process, I cannot see much changing.
“EU or no-EU the need to move home will always be there. Brits move for a whole host of reasons including good schools, new jobs and better transport links. ‘Brexit’ is not a word our branches are hearing on the ground anymore, but instead, customers are much more focused on what is happening with interest rates and stamp duty, and for investors, the recent tax changes.
“But the reality is that the property market is heavily driven by sentiment. If the Government can provide a strong vision of the UK’s post-Brexit future, greater stability and confidence will follow. Comments from those such as Mark Carney who downplay the potential market conditions are extremely unhelpful.
“Today’s market is well-insulated against any macro-financial situations that may come our way, and I do not believe these doomsday predictions are within any realistic parameters of what could happen, or that a ‘no-deal’ Brexit could have the same impact on the property market today than the financial crash did back in 2007. Today, debt in the form of mortgages accounts for just 43% of house purchase funding due to measures introduced after the crash, and last month there was the highest level of remortgaging activity in a decade as homeowners locked themselves into a low-interest rate deal. With these mortgage conditions and strong demand, prices will always be propped up.”
