"It does seem more likely than not that the final quarter of the year will show little or no overall growth in GDP with the recovery shuddering to a halt."
Its data shows that the rate of recovery has slowed each month since the largest rise of 9.1% in June 2020.
October 2020 GDP is now 23.4% higher than its April 2020 low. However, it remains 7.9% below the levels seen in February 2020, before the full impact of the coronavirus pandemic.
Rory Macqueen, principal economist at NIESR, commented: “Today’s ONS data show that the fourth quarter got off to a ponderous start even before the second lockdown in England was imposed.
"Survey data suggest that, although the economic impact of the second lockdown in November was smaller than the first, it does seem more likely than not that the final quarter of the year will show little or no overall growth in GDP with the recovery shuddering to a halt.
"While the rollout of the vaccine offers some positive momentum, the final act of Brexit is likely to offset that in the early months of 2021.”
Richard Pearson, director at investment platform, EQi, added: “Recent UK GDP figures have been painting a depressing image following the excellent rebound we witnessed earlier this year, and this month is no exception. With the entirety of the UK under various levels of lockdown throughout October, it was inevitable our recovery would take a hit and growth would taper off from the summer’s jump.
“Despite the second lockdown in England being lifted, much of the UK remains in limbo with many businesses in the hospitality and arts sector unable to take part in what should be their busiest season.
“The announcement of the new vaccines provided some relief to the markets last month and hope for the future, but we have a long way to go until the economy begins to show the same relief. Coupled with the ongoing uncertainty around a post-Brexit trade agreement, it’s likely the UK economy won’t recover to its pre-pandemic state for years.”
